today 08:00 | Updated today 08:12
In most polls leading the red-green opposition greatly over the Alliance.
Sometimes I am asked if the Alliance can win the election so that they remain in office. Despite the Alliance’s awkward position in the opinion polls, the question is not irrelevant. Prior to the last two general elections, the conservative parties have succeeded in what could be described as a “game changer” that resulted in a game change where the political game changed character.
A “game changer”, or game changing, is an event, an idea or process that significantly alters the current way of doing or thinking about something.
In this case it is for the Alliance to make a positive change voters’ way of thinking about government parties and their policies (or the voters perceive the red-green option more negative).
few years before the 2006 parliamentary election was the incumbent Socialist government with Persson at the head a comfortable majority in the polls, consisting of his own party and the two support portions Green Party and the Left Party. But in the fall changed the political game by the four conservative parties formed the Alliance. Focus on the individual parties declined and the political struggle could instead be described as a battle between two blocks. A year later, the roles were reversed in the opinion polls and the Alliance had a comfortable lead over the red-green and successful stay away until the finish on election day in September 2006. The formation of the Alliance was a “game changer,” a game changing, which led to the change of government.
Also during the term of office after the 2006 parliamentary election saw the long grim for the Alliance Government. Opinion figures were grim and political science professor Sören Holmberg said that the government was smoked. But then, the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the Social Democrats and the Green Party formed the Red-Green bloc together with the Left and presented different proposals, each of which seemed to reduce the support for these parties.
The Swedish economy had hacked sharply in 2009, but 2010 was fall again. The Swedish economy seemed to stand up well in comparison with what was happening on the continent where the “Greek crisis” was the word that described the situation. After the parliamentary elections this year could the Alliance continue to rule. Again, the game switched to the Alliance’s favor.
But the success of games shift has not proven to be a lasting solution to the Alliance’s problems with public support. Certainly, many voters agile, but easy come also seems to be easy go. After each successful game changing, it has also come a time when the Alliance has lost much of its support. It seems to belong to spelväxlingens nature that it does not alter the voters ‘basic political attitudes, but only a temporary change in many voters’ evaluation of government.
Prior to the 2014 parliamentary election the Alliance again. All things being equal, they should lose the election. Statistically government parties lose three percentage points in voter support between the two elections. Again, the Reinfeldt government a game changer.
Magnus Hagevi
Associate Professor of Political Science Linnaeus University
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